By Jordan Denari, 17; David Glass, 17; Quinn Andrews, 14; and Jake Thornburgh, 14, Y-Press

Published: May 14, 2008

Much has been written and reported on the throngs of youth involved in the presidential primaries and caucuses. But will youth actually have an impact on the general election? Will activism translate into votes?

Turnout of young voters has historically been low compared to older voters,       according to Karlo Barrios Marcelo, a researcher at CIRCLE, the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at the University of Maryland, which researches the civil and political activities of Americans ages 15 to 25.

Youth voter turnout was highest in 1972, when the voting age became 18.  Then, 55 percent of voters under age 25 cast votes.

It hasn’t been that high since.

“There was a slight jump in 1992 when Bill Clinton first ran for president. That was a 52 percent. That was the second highest we’ve seen,” Marcelo said.

Brian Vargus, a political science professor at Indiana University-Purdue University in Indianapolis who has done extensive public opinion polling, noted that the youngest voters have tended to have the lowest turnout.

“Basically, for the under 34s, the turnout was falling through the ’80s and the ’90s, all the way up to 2000. In terms of reported voting for the 18- to 20-year-olds, it was almost a steady decline, and 2000 had some very low turnouts for the 18- to 20-year-olds,” he said.

However, both pollsters noted that turnout has been increasing among young voters since the start of the new millennium.

“In 2004, we saw an increase, a 9 percentage point increase – the largest of any other age group.  We saw another increase in 2006 from the midterm in 2002 of 3 percentage points,” Marcelo said.

The presidential candidates have been trying to capitalize on this increased political interest among youth. Many named directors in charge of tapping young voters.

“In previous elections, if a candidate was even going to get a national youth outreach director, they usually did this in the general election.  Now we’re seeing people do it in the primaries.  Right at the beginning of the primary season, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton, they all hired campaign staffers to just do young voter outreach,” Marcelo said.

The candidates also have tried to engage youth via the Internet. Barack Obama’s campaign has been at the forefront of the use of interactive technology, spending more than any other candidate for space on search engines, blogs and other Web sites.

Obama not only has a presence on a variety of Internet sites such as MySpace, YouTube and Facebook, but his own Web site mirrors these social-networking places that appeal to youth.

These efforts seem to be having the desired effect. Youth voting results have been promising in the 2008 primaries and caucuses. According to CIRCLE, 43 percent of voters under age 30 voted in New Hampshire, compared to 18 percent in 2004. Similar increases among youth have followed: 13 percent in Iowa, up from 4 percent in 2004; 25 percent in Ohio, up from 15 percent in 2000; 21 percent in Georgia, up from 7 percent in 2000, among others.

“It is clear in this particular election cycle, there are some unusual things going on that seem to be causing more young people to be at least following it and working in campaigns and, of course, showing up to vote.  For example, in New Hampshire, 43 percent of the eligible voters under 30 voted. Now that’s an astronomical number,” Vargus said.

He has noticed other signs of involvement, too. “A very large number of students on this campus, comparatively, looking over time, are either involved in a campaign or are following the campaign or talking about the campaign. It’s much, much higher than it’s been in past presidential campaigns, and I’ve been here for 32 years, so I’ve seen a lot of prior presidential campaigns,” he said.
This increased youth involvement can be attributed to a variety of factors. The widespread use and availability of interactive technology, especially the Internet, has played a large part.

“We know that the Internet makes information a lot easier for people to get. It makes registering to vote easier. It makes finding information about the candidates a lot easier,” Marcelo said.

It also makes activism easier. Morley Winograd and Michael Hais are authors of “Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics.” They found that technology has made political involvement much more accessible and immediate for young people.  

“In the caucuses, young people text-messaged each other, IM’d each other, let each other know through social network messaging that this was where, how and what to do in a caucus,” Winograd said.
Another factor contributing to youth involvement is the plethora of groups, many nonpartisan, whose mission is to register voters. Rock the Vote, Get out the Vote and Declare Yourself are just a few of these organizations.

"A lot of foundations started pouring money into the youth vote in 2004," Marcelo explained. "So you saw a lot of nonprofit, nonpartisan, sometimes partisan groups come up and really focus on reaching out to young people."

Ryan Costella founded one such voter registration organization—YouthVoice, based in Nevada—in 2006 after realizing that many of the government's problems are rooted in the fact that the best leaders are not always elected to office, he said.

"Katrina hit the southern United States … and I just saw what a terrible situation that was.  I really just looked at it and said, ‘You know, this is caused partly by a lot of people not being involved enough in their government and in the decisions that are made, and as a result we end up electing people who aren’t as high quality as we might expect in responding to our needs,’” Costella said.

“So I thought, ‘Well, maybe it would be a good idea to start changing that.’  So I did a lot of reading and research and whatnot and created Youth Voice."

Many other young people have become dissatisfied with government, particularly the policies of the current administration. This also might be compelling them to vote.
"Remember, you’ve got a president in office right now with one of the lowest approval ratings in history,” Vargus said. “You’ve got an economy that many people are very dissatisfied with. Look at the stock market today.  You’ve got an unpopular war. You put all those things together and you’ve got two-thirds of Americans to almost three-quarters, depending on the poll, saying that the country is headed in the wrong direction."
Marcelo believes this irritation will drive young voters to the polls.
"Today’s generation of young voters is very different from those say in the 1990s.  They’re very interested in politics. They see the government as corrupt and inefficient. They believe that there is a way to get things done, and they’re seeing electoral participation as one of those ways right now."

But perhaps the most important reason young people are having such an impact is that the current generation of young people—the Millennials, who are defined as those born between 1982 and 2003—may be more activist and community-minded than their predecessors, according to Winograd and Hais.

“The Millennials are an example of what we call the civic generation, and they tend to operate in terms of being close to one another in groups. They tend to be much more focused on making things good for the group, making things good for the country as a whole,” Winograd said.

He pointed to another phenomenon of the Millennials: In previous elections and generations, young people were greatly influenced by the political leanings of their parents and elders. But this year, the opposite seems to be occurring.

“[Millennials] are convincing their parents or grandparents to vote for the candidate they like, as opposed to having their parents or grandparents tell them how to vote,” Winograd said.

The well-publicized story about Caroline Kennedy being persuaded to support Obama is an example of this trend.  As the election season was gearing up, Kennedy’s children came to her and explained that the Illinois senator was inspiring people in much the same way that their grandfather did almost 50 years ago.

Other American youth are attempting to convert older family members.  On Facebook, youth have created the group “I’m Going to Convince My Parents to Vote for Obama!”

This suggests, Winograd said, that the Millennials are having an impact beyond their own demographic. “They become the leader and vanguard of the new politics,” he said.

But will young people continue exerting their will in the general election in November? Marcelo thinks so.

“I think we’re going to break the 50 percent sort of barrier that has really been holding us down for a long time. Whether or not we’re gonna break the 1972 record of 55 percent, we don’t know.”